Bitcoin Bull Run Ends in 15 Months, Here's Why

It's all cyclical. It's not just bitcoin. Raoul Pal explains all this. If you look at the Bitcoin chart, it shows that we are exactly where we should be for this point in the cycles.

Bitcoin bullrun ended in april just like i said it would.

But the 4-year cycles also suggest the end of the bull run the same time you're suggesting!

❤🔥

That’s a rather solid analysis, but ignores the speculative nature of bitcoin.

… but what difference does the speculative nature of bitcoin make?

Bitcoin is not a normal/rational instrument… Bitcoin is an irrational/speculative instrument, which means it is subject to wild swing; not just that, it MUST be subject to wild swings…

However, as the trend shows the wild up swings are getting smaller and smaller, simply because its growing market cap and the lack of spare money supply. On the other hand, there is no limit on the downswings.

Speculative assets are also very sensitive to unexpected events. As speculative assets become more mature, their upward potential becomes capped but their downward potential remains uncapped… this eventually leads to paranoia as speculative assets mature, which leads to their eventual and sudden collapse

Bitcoin is getting there…
Bitcoin will hit a new ATH at the end of 2024, then it will have a major collapse at the end of March 2025.
The last bitcoin miner will get turned off at the January 2026

rewatched this and took notes, thank you again
this is so valuable to understand when to go into risk assets, especially altcoins

So when will be the recession though? That will take coins crashing down hard

Your videos have been great !! I am part of your viewers and i’ve been watching your videos lately. I’m interested in trading but I still can’t figure out the right trading to engage in . I’ll appreciate any help out here.

Do you think the interest rate will still go low if there is a market crash like 2009?? The rate went up over night and there was no liquidity for couple of years

Cuts do not equal QE bro.. lmao

Hit $200k today, Thanks for the knowledge and nugget you have thrown my way over the last month , started with $14,000 in last month 2024....

Keep investing until of Q1 2025 and riding the wave until early 2026. I think we could get a prolonged/extended cycle. Spot ETFs & retail will be massive!

Nicely said. I am waiting myself to get my million back.

You have no clue…….

Wait, are we actually suggesting that Bitcoin might not follow the traditional halving cycle?

Is this not what Raoul Pal continually goes on about? Although it's not tied to the BTC cycle, it does correlate to the price action.

i think you should check out cut rate in 2019. Market react bear, after the rate cut done. Then BTC fly only after rate cut done. Pause cycle.

Prediction based on dominance don't make any sense on memecoins. Memecoin prices isn't logical at all. A good comparison is DOGE and SHIBA's MC last bullrun.

Very good video. Agree with everything.
Only thing I disagree, is with next cycle top: I think we are closer to the top than most think... March 2025 should be at latest for BTC top.
Happy to be wrong.

Interesting theory about the correlation between rate cuts and the bull run. But I have a question. How can you explain that during 2023 when fed was tightening. with 4 rate hikes the bitcoin price went up 156%.

Great video as always! 👍 Need some advice: 🙏 I found these words 😅. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). How do I use this? 🤨

I consider the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF to be a watershed moment in the financial markets. Normally, I wouldn't buy-and-hold assets, but eight months ago, I spent more than $300,000, and it warms my heart that this is still happening. We are now approaching a bull run, and I am confident that I will regain everything I lost.

Good cycle analysis. 👏🏻👏🏽👏👏🏼

GG bro

Bacon , do you believe Ozone Metaverse will be the new Sandbox ??

👍

Really insightful breakdown on how the M2 money supply affects Bitcoin! 📈 It’s wild how traditional halving cycles might not hold up anymore. With all this liquidity in play, I’m thinking of diversifying my retirement portfolio with crypto. Just got into a crypto IRA with My Digital Money. Anyone else making moves like that?

Great video
Thank u 🏆

Excellent. Hallam in always sunny Barbados,

Mister triggles on base.... 8k market cap right now.
community takeover happened. Could be an easy 100x in the next month at only 1 million market cap

Spread the word and buy quick!!!!!! I've bought and sold on coinbase wallet
LET'S FN GO!!!
0x987f6eff639f1a1307dbb4b389ac2d6b66362cf4

Thanks for the info

The 4 year cycle is a thing... however most people go wrong because they try to measure them from peak to peak, which gives you quite a bit of variation. If you measure them low to low you'll see the cycles have been pretty consistent. Basically the next low should be between Sep and Dec 2026 if the cycles remain intact. The top of the market can come at any point though.

Been waiting for u...

$BRATT

Glory to the gods that I found your channel and this video; you are real g. Wishing you all the best.

So in Macro, BTC will bull run for ever with downside fluctuations obviously, because Central banks will never stop printing the FIAT shitcoins.

Forget about bullrun.. don’t be fooled guyz..

thank you for this my man :-)

And what about Altcoins?

If Trump win the bull run will stat6

Hi Dennis, would you mind doing a video on the wave chart analysis of gold 🥇? Thanks a million!

❤ superb thanks

why do you focus on the balance sheet for alt coins and you focus on rates for bitcoin?

None of this actually makes any sense. What explains the current bullrun right now other than a cycle? Global Net Liquidity is low, yet we are in a bullrun right now reaching ATHs almost every week. You can maybe make a small correlation between Global net liquidity of the previous bullruns but what explains the bullrun right now? Also, the interest rates in the 2017 bullrun were increasing the entire time. They were low, but they were going up. Now, they are slightly higher, and going down slightly, yet we are in a bullrun right now? You can't make sense of this other than this is a cycle.

Fed's interest rate cut depends on CPI, meaning downward interest rate movement can actually stall if inflation doesn't go down. This is not mentioned in your video. Macro is more complicated that your analysis.

By far the best video I have ever seen on this space. Thank you so much for putting this together. Legend!

It doesn't have a direct relationship with M2 Money supply increase. To drive the effective rates towards the fed funds targete rates by way of OMO & IORB, the liquidity goes to the bank reserves (M0) and not the wider economy (M2). So this isn't a direct relationship. Throughout 2016 & 2017 interest rates were being hiked for example but M2 money supply was still expanding.