U.S. CQM Forecast Alert! 20220415: How to Estimate Inventory Valuation Adjustment in CQM?

「How to Estimate Inventory Valuation Adjustment in CQM?」

There are still large gaps of economic growth forecasts among the expenditure side (-0.22%), the income side (1.49%) and PCA (1.69%). The main reason for the low economic growth on the expenditure side is low real exports. The other reason is inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) which CQM implicitly estimates in the bridge equation of inventory changes by using producer price index. Based on actual exported goods by February, and large increase in PPI, Advance 2022Q1 GDP may be close to economic growth rate on the expenditure side. The keys to economic growth in 2022Q1 are March exported goods and IVA calculated by BEA. Since both CQM and PCA show upward trends for inflation, Bidenflation will continues.

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#U.S._CQM #U.S._CQM_Forecast #U.S._CQM_Forecast_Alert #US_CQM #US_CQM_Forecast #US_CQM_Forecast_Alert #CQM #ITeconomy #Yuzo_Kumasaka #GDPNowcast #PCA_Forecast #U.S._Economy #U.S._Economic_Forecast

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