Things I (Do) Worry About: Higher Education in the US || Peter Zeihan

They’ll just open/ expand their courses to other foreign students like the uk has

A lot of the jobs in the next 10 years will be manufacturing jobs but not as many, because robots will be employed increasingly more as they become more like humans.

I appreciate that Gen-Z has realized being around people 24/7 isn't all that it is supposedly cracked up to be.

I'm a bit puzzled by this video. PZ is usually not this wide of the mark, so it may just be that too much of the information has been lost in order to produce a short video. I'm a boomer, and in some areas there was already an oversupply of graduates in the 1960s that got steadily worse. In order to get a teaching job after over 500 applications to school districts 10 states, I had to get a masters degree because the bachelors was insufficient, by the time I had that, the economic downturn deprioritized the masters, and the oversupply of teachers and applicants was even greater. I had to go overseas to get experience, and the pay and benefits were better there, so I continued teaching there until I became a Professor, which finally opened the door for me in my own country.

The second problem with this video is that it seems to assume that the US is uniform. The proportion of people with advanced degrees, in places like Boston, is far higher than in other places, as is the number of institutions of higher education. Many colleges and universities had already begun attracting foreign students in the 20th Century. Overseas, my doctors and dentists were often US university educated and wanted their children to continue their education there [sometimes born and partly educated here]. Boston has quite an advantage. I know of an ESL school that was outrageously successful because you could see Harvard Yard from their windows and breathe the same air as the students. Many colleges and universities have had successful recruitment drives overseas, for years. When we are short of people trained for blue collar jobs, people trained in other countries for those jobs will find our university, college and even high school language training programs a convenient entree. This has been happening for more than two decades, and as the need and pay for blue collar jobs increases so will this flow. It is, after all simple economics of supply, demand, competition and pricing.

Well, PZ, the matter presented here is a distinct sector, and may deserve its own treatment, as other sectors have had at times. I have to admit that this reaction is also flawed. It is overly broad and at the same time overly specific and consists of undocumented reminiscence rather than documented data points.

Remember when you voted for Biden? With that, why in TF would anybody listen to you ever again?

Why do we assume that the manufacturing jobs of the future are blue-collar jobs? In order for manufacturing to be financially viable onshore, the amount of automation required will be massive. These will be highly technical jobs, not what last generation would consider blue collar assembly line jobs. I think this is an error in peters analysis.

University of give us money we do not deserve

Depends on when you have kids of course but typically there's a generation between parents and their children. Baby booms raised millennials, Gen X raised Gen Z, and now Millennials are raising Gen Alpha

Everybody that says “get a blue collar job” or “get a factory job” has never had either.

PUBLIC COLLEGES AND VOCATIONAL SCHOOLS SHOULD BE TUITION FREE OR PAID BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. AS IT USED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. I GUESS A NEOLIBERAL LIKE ZEIHAN WOULD OPPOSE THIS. THE SAME OLD STORY. REPUBLICANS HAVE NO SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIC HUMAN PROBLEMS. THE REST OF ZEIHAN'S SCHPIEL IS BS.

Funny thing: what Peter says right at the end is exactly what the German companies do. Which is why they have such highly-trained and loyal workforces.

When I was a kid, I knew one person with a PHD, a friend of my mother’s who was a psychotherapist. Now I can’t count how many people I know with PHDs. The stubborn thing about socio-economic hierarchies is that everyone can’t be “elite.”

AI is best and most efficient producing the most effective

Like they do in Germany?

I am a professor at a rural community college.. Our enrollment is up over 5%. We have robotics programs, construction programs, network security programs, dental and nursing, logistics management, CAD certification, business management, radiology, education, (AS and AAS), and the standard AA program for transfer to four year universities-- and more. We have more PhDs teaching students than they would have in the first two years at a large university and students can complete a complete AA online if that is their need. Guess what? This is happening all over America.  
Higher education is far more flexible and "nimble" than you imply here but your point is relevant. We work with local employers to create training programs that meet their needs and these students do really well and have real career options. Is there a problem? Yes-- the politics of the state is a big problem. They are interfering with what we have built over the last 20 years (the nimbleness and responsiveness to the local and world trajectory) and are now imposing "politically appointed administrators" who hire their friends at big salaries who do nothing and cannot do what they're supposed to do. Things are beginning to unravel and moral is in the toilet. Hopefully, we can just hold on to get to the other side of this and back to serving the people of our communities and not a handful of self-serving politicians.

There were no decent paying blue collar jobs left at they shipped them all overseas... Going for white collar was the right move

One thing I am noticing is that the demand for shipbuilding is increasing. Every defense shipyard is screaming for advanced welding and shopfitting employees, but they don't exist. Don't get me wrong; glamouris isn't part of the job perks.

Wait, Peter, are you saying that gender studies and anti-racism degrees aren't going to be useful during reindustrialization? But how will factories know what gender they are without these intellectual luminaries? What's the point of being a welder if you don't know how to decolonize your toolbox?

What about education in Europe and the UK?

The other problem is that we have let society denigrate the trades so much no body wants to go into it let alone it doesn’t pay well!!!

I have been saying this for years, we need to focus more on trade schools, rather than everyone going to college.

There is NO SUCH THING as a 6 week welding or electrician certificate. Blue collar is the way to go, if you want to work and you’re going to show up. While you’re an apprentice electrician you will be treated like shit for a year or so. Your journeyman will NOT talk to you like your college professor or your mom. If you can handle some moderate verbal abuse, show up on time, be hot, be dirty, and WORK then most of the trades are great. The difference I found in the trades is that while you are getting your education as an apprentice electrician or welder’s helper you are getting paid instead of getting debt.

Went from medical library science to locksmith/safe tech. Better salary and lifestyle in the latter career.

The college degree is mainly a class signifier. You learn how to name-drop Eliza Doolittle and prove yourself worthy of wearing a (literal) white collared shirt.

Contrary to Peter's pathologically utilitarian and neo-liberal hot-take, a higher education was and is never meant to substitute for a vocational-technical training.

There is a place in community life for liberally educated class, and the broader-based the better. Don't mistake it for a career-choice. It is very unfortunate that the misunderstanding has been used to financially hoodwink credulous parents and students.

Universities were invented in Europe to warehouse the spare sons of the nobility, hence the emphasis on studying things unrelated to the subject one went to study (to keep them busy), this now has been supplemented by the social life side of it and it has become a colossal money pit.
They need to be streamlined, and the STEM subjects run more like trade schools (it doesn't matter that much if it takes 6 years to complete a gender studies class).

A 6 week "electrical degree?" In Washington, last I checked, it was a 2 year certificate program taught in community college. There's a lot of math both in school and on the job.

Sea level rising? You mean the 2.3 mm average over the last 70 years. This is the problem with the basing Science on feelings. Because 2.3 mm average is very small.

I am halfway to a bachelor degree in Psycology, i currently hold an AS degree from my local community college. I’m 42, I only have retail experience and I just spent a decade doing that, I cannot do it any longer because I refuse to do the Woke bs. I was written up for saying the word LINEBACKER. I was written up for covering my chest when I spilled water on my shirt. Fucking crazy, and I’m done. Shou,d I just get a welding certificate, I am a hobby blacksmith and I can weld good enough for my needs. Or do I push on and become a psychologist. There is always going to be trauma, depression, and psycopathy.

I will say that if I had my druthers, I would build garden beds for people to earn my money, but there is almost 0 demand, at leas tin my Facebook friends groups. They say do what you love, I love gardening, I love teaching people how to garden, and I love building beds. I love hunting too but I’m no Babe Winklman or Steven Rhinela.

Being a leading edge Boomer , i did not want to be a coal miner or work in the enviromentally dirter chemical plants that even in the 60’s were dying due to engineering and clean this and that legislation. I choose engineering but never specialized as i continuously took courses at many different universities through a Master’s degree and PhD. I worked way into my 70’s because I loved the my work including teaching part-time and full-time. I still work contracts! I would not change a thing!

Is this SoCal? Geoguesser thangs

Yeah brainwash them young, they all that fantastic crap to us millennials, but I'm certainly glad that I'm considered the negative type AK the skeptical type when something is repeated over and over again red flags go off I generally don't buy shit!

I'm with you on that, but seeing as it always was the socialist *demon*crats who pushed demolishing the education system with things like sex-ed to begin with; and worse stuff now if you can believe it- why in the world would you side with them?
There's a LOT wrong with what they teach- now I myself had a good education in college- by and large I was able to pick and choose my courses within limits; but even that didn't explain how come I landed at least by and large sane courses... I don't think I will ever know what the cause of that was in my life to be honest.
Seeing that; and the extremely dysfunctional education system designed to literally oftentimes screw the students in every single and sicko way imaginable (and some at least totally unthinkable!), and seeing as that kind of garbage has always come out of the socialists playbook, and the "democrats" are at least fully socialist in their platform: why in the world would you side with them? I mean; at least half of your economic analyses disprove all of their claims, including your analysis confirming true USA Exceptionalism in almost all ways.

Only NOW?

Forgetting that Baby Boomers also raised Gen X is the most Gen X ever. Lmao😂

So many graduates come out brainwashed into socialism. How pathetic.

Only the top 15% should go to college. The rest need to be blue collar where they could make good money.

University presidents are paid way too much anyway

Higher education is getting diluted as universities moved away from standardized tests like SAT, ACT, GRE, GMAT. It is these exams that made American higher education great. Very few countries require both quantitative and verbal skills from humanities, social science and stem students.

If there’s no kids why would the competition be fierce?😊

Too many people going to College = High demand for degrees = Tuition prices soar skyhigh.
Too many people graduating = too much degress around = degrees lose their value = Wages stagnate.

So, you're saying we should bring back the apprenticeship program. Could be right.

Most college is overpriced 4X - and mostly hand out USELESS DEGREES.

YES.

THIS.

gather 'round peons. let's hear the wisdom Hakham Zeihan is 'bout to bless us, the unworthy, with.

The story of my career. In the 80s and 90s our factories were shutting down and going to Mexico. In the 90s and 2000s it was going to China. Prior to this kids graduating HS had the choice to go to college. Join the military. Or get a job at the local factory. Once the factories were gone college's lowered their stds and started taking kids who had no place being in college. So most of them got worthless degrees in the liberal arts.

“Life was kinda rough” at the same time a man working a factory job could support a whole family and buy a house

Neglecting higher education is how we got millions of MAGA Morons.

Look, in the US 60% of students go to college. That means that 10% of college students are below average Intelligence. Higher education is not a $200,000 vacation where you pursue your hobbies in French poetry for four years. Only the top 15% of workers need to go to college and those degrees are largely in STEM fields. Humanities degrees are totally worthless. There are too many economists and lawyers and not enough engineers and scientists.

Higher Ed. has also somehow failed to inculcate that Democracy is better than a Strong Man Autocracy.