Jason Koon's Ultra High Stakes Move vs. Top Set EXPLAINED [Record-Breaking Pot!]

10s feel like the only hand he could lose to there. AA would have 5 bet, he has the blocker on A3s, A5s is blocked by the board, A10 of spades maybe but that seems like it wouldn’t have been played that way. Tough beat.

AK off also possible

Seems like a check back on the river. If you bet and know you are beat when they call, then you are never expecting for them to call with worse. Why wasn’t he happy his opponent called? Because he knows the only hands calling have him beat. JJ, QQ, KK fold. AJ never is in his range, so either he has AK, A10 or a set that will call. If you bet a river and know you are beat when they call you are basically bluffing with the best hand, except there is no hand he beats that folds. If he had JJ then I like the bet. Because you can get a better hand to fold.

the jam on the river, i don't know...seems like he wasn't beating much that Kane would have continued with even hitting the ace...

The question is if villain had jj qq kk would call that river, that what i think would make that shove profitable case if he only call with TT AA Ak and fold that JJ QQ we’re losing long term

Phil Galfonds choice in toothpaste is definitely +EV

1 million euros can't be sustainable for most of these

I mean as played on the river it is a cooler but why tf are you 4 betting one of the biggest nits on earth with AQo?? Either fold pre or just call the 3 bet and you save yourself 1m. Know your customer.

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So should I assume that all these pros have at the very least an $8 million bankroll if you calculate the 20 buyins of 100bb?

Jason Koon is clearly awesome and would 100% bluff shove this river. But with AQ for value - can 77-99 or JJ, QQ, KK ever call here? It seems unbelievably thin for value… the river is surely a check back.

so basically Koon list 931k playing this hand this way. my only question would be if/how this is going to work... how many times does he have to play this hand in order to on the winning side 🤔

horrible shove it is not a tournament he is only getting called by better if kalas has anything worse than AQ he is not getting called

I humbly disagree with the has too shove. AQo blocks a lot of Kalas’s calling range. Which is mainly QQ or AKo/AQo. So when you are ahead you aren’t getting called and only getting action with a split or better hand. Very poor shove. On the river IP doesn’t purely bet based on equity

like most commentators I don’t agree with the River shove…what bluffs does he have? and more importantly, what hands does he expect to call?? but hey, that must be some super GTO high stakes stuff we peasants just don’t get…

Phil, you are by far my favorite poker analyst.

How does this look silly, pretty standard spot I'd say. It's just a little but bigger than your local 1/2 game 😂

Couldn't comment on the short about running it twice, but it is actually changing your odds. Say you're both all in pre, you have aces and they have 8s. If the first 5 cards dont have an 8 in them, then it is now meaningfully more likely that the second 5 do. So while aces is expected to win 80% of single run pots in that scenario, it's probably closer to 75% of pots while running it twice. It's similar for a flush draw from the flop: winning the first run makes it slightly less likely you'll win the second. It will almost always favor the person behind in equity to run it twice, as it gives them more looks at the specific cards they need to hit. Both players will revert closer to 50%, which is obviously bad if you're ahead and good if you're behind.

Phil if the turn doesn't come a ten and say it's another low card. Would you still call the 10s after Koon bets turn.

Imagine JBOOGS losing this pod.

At the beginning you give a whole explanation on why koon 4 bet AQo and but the wasnt the action, koon 3bet, kalas 4bet, koon 5 bet, kalas calls.

I do not think this is a shove here from Koon. Koon played this hand like JJ QQ KK Ak. How can he get called by worse when the river comes off an Ace?!? Everything that beats him calls and underpairs are now gonna fold out.

I understand the theory behind value shoving AQ here. I just feel like in practice it’s too thin. I know it shouldn’t matter and it’s just big blinds but this isn’t a 100bb pot at 1/2 here. Kane is also a solid player not a call happy rec. Is he really going to call JJ-KK enough on this river to warrant it? He understands what Koon’s 4b range looks like MW here what hand that wants to 4b pre barrel flop and turn then jam an A river can JJ-KK beat? Even the majority of his 4b bluffs will contain an ace and a lot of them river 2 pair.

Great format, thanks!

way too thin otr by Jason. He isn't ever getting paid by worse

I don't understand how Kalas isn't worried about top set on river?

hi Phil, thanks for your strategy videos, I really enjoy them. If you see this, I'd love to get your opinion on studying solvers vs. learning about poker thru advanced courses. I am a low-stakes live player that doesn't know whether to invest in GTO Wizard to independently study the solver or if I should purchase courses from your run it once site on NLH. any advice would be great, thanks so much

The all in on the river doesn’t make any sense….! am i the only one who notices this?

Noone mixes up his rangers like Phil Gandalf.

What are Jason’s bluffs on the river? If Kane were to have JJ instead for example.

So many "experts" in the comments here LOL. Guys, maybe consider this is the reason you're still break-even player at your local 1/2 and 2/5 games and guys like Galfond literally climbed the stakes ladder from a $100 bankroll to multi-millions. Most of the fake full tilt pros were cons, cheats, etc but the legit guys climbed the stakes ladders by studying and posting on 2+2 a lot. You can disagree all you want LOL but I'll take Phil's opinions over yours anyday haha

thank you for the analysis Phil. If the river would not have been in ace I think the hand would have been way more interesting

i dont get it

Why was Kalas putting rubber bands around those weird ass chips at the end? Bro cashing out after 1 hand ? Lmfao

In that game, Jason immediately bought in for another 1.5 million and won a 2.5 million pot a few minutes later. So, losing 921,000 Euros? No big deal for Jason ...

I’m just having a hard time thinking what worse hand can possibly call here when u shove ace queen on the river, like yeah maybe he can hero with jacks queens or kings, but seems very unlikely given that those cards unblock ace highs that got there, making it more likely for Jason to have a A in his hand, just seems extremely thin

I see better play at 50-100nl crazy this is real money

Bad river shove. What does he beat? If opponent has JJ, QQ, KK - he won't call anyway (thinking that Koon has overpair or has hit his AK or AQ - so no need to call). He only gets called by better (AK, set). Also, the fact that 1010 guy checked call means he has at least a bluff catcher (also very unlikely Kalas has a draw since he would have gotten creative by now or at least bluff on the river - not check as a dead man).

Ok but the main question is, what are the bluffs from Jason? How does Kale should perceive his range to call it off with KK/QQ here?

i almost always 4 bet bluff my AQo, what i hate doing i 3 betting it oop because if i get 4 bet it gets tricky.

why do they use those big ol chips they look so funny

I just see Phil Ivey staring everybody down not saying a damn word😂

Another great video by none other than Mr Galfond. Thank you

Shouldn’t he get some equity to bet that turn? Or at least a fd to represent?

2000/4000. So these guys are buying in for 2 million? Must be nice to have a bankroll of 60 mil to whip around.

So this was a hand i didn’t really understand. Is Jason really expecting to get called by worse here ?