Interest Rates Are SKYROCKETING!! Here's What You Need To Know

So Biden and Co were right the US economy is healthy?

So, what your saying is that our predictive capabilities are equally to cutting the head off a chicken and letting it run around an option wheel until it falls on the direction forward.

unless 10y UST reaches 5.5-6ish levels, panic is but self creation!

Personally, we want to either build a house or get a very nice triple wide. Currently we live in a tiny double wide, but have a nice 10 acre property. I can’t afford the higher rates, even though we are paying off debt fairly quickly and starting with big chunck. Property taxes are a whole issue off of its own and so i am leaning to the triple wide. By the way, mostly with a couple rentals in town we are worth over a million on paper, but am at the mercy of the rates. Im not selling- those are my retirement later on.

My gut is telling me to move to safety. I’m no expert and my emotions are usually wrong. I keep asking myself why am I not following Warren Buffets lead and stocking up on dry powder.

I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat

Bear steepener is here, you were wrong

Some experts believe that a pause in interest rate hikes could boost certain industries, while others caution that it might fuel inflation concerns. I'm considering a review of my $600K portfolio allocations, particularly in light of potential sector impacts. I'm curious about strategies in response to this.

Its stagflation - inflation is just at a low point ... what geroge is missing is massive cc debt, no car sales, no equipment sales, and a million other bad indicators... farmers have lost money for 3 years now, that cuts investment and usually results in a yeild drag, lower ukraine grain exports. Add in a middle east oil dissaster and inflation come back full steam

Or, we could just get stagflation. High rates and a crappy economy.

When are you going to hit MSTR, George? Come on, man.

The issue is that by the time you admit you were wrong you might be wrong again or “correct” on your original thesis. Fed rebalancing is starting soon. Tail rates will drop once the front end of the curve starts meaningfully pulling at the tail end (greater uninversion) and QT comes to a pause 2025 with QE restarting near the end of 2026. Fed’s Lorie Logan has made it clear that the Fed intends to net reduce MBS and pick up treasuries. The purchases of which will add additional demand to long end of the curve.

To make my last point more clear. Please consider the possibility of a “humped” yield curve 🤙

10y treasury is only 4.4%. Where is that skyrocketing? Maybe 6% or above would be alarming.

Relax. You guys panicking on yields need to look up Japan. The primary buyer is their central bank. Conversely up until just a few weeks ago the primary “seller” of treasuries is the US Fed itself. Unwinding 50% of what they picked up (MBS+Treasuries) during COVID…they are also unloading MBS and moving towards the end of QT and resumption of QE. All this will spell lower rates at the tail of the curve.

What do you think 13 zero interest rates 13 years zero interest rates have not even had a chance to correct rates may have to go to 10% to get all that garbage out of the system

The fed raised into the collapse in 2000, cause the gamblers will never stop until they're forced. Look at Saylor, for the 2nd fucking time.

😄

12.55

George 'supply side doesn't matter'
Really? How interesting

Wartime generally disrupts supply

Bond market is wrong. We are going to be fighting deflation next year. The same people pushing up the yields are the ones who thought K woman would win. Wrong and wrong again. Gas will be cut in half and Government spending will be cut. Not to mention the consumer is going to start cutting back. All hugely deflationary.

when yields where inverted it signaled recession. Now yields are uninverted and it signal recession. Where is it?

The FED has completely lost control...
China and Japan are dumping treasuries, upcoming fed auctions aren't going to be good.

Mostly always wrong, but amusing.

Perma idiot. When Gammon starts to buy it will be top of the market. Rosenberg at Macrovoices said he is becoming bull, now it is time for Gammon and then collapse -50%. And Gammon will sell at the bottom. Greatest idiot in universe.

Tariff inflation incoming also.

Good more opportunity to lock in big interest. Bring back the 80s man. Using higher yield to lock in huge monthly payments. Would love for them to go back to October 2023.

it's funny. you keep saying that demand for treasuries is high so supply doesn't matter.
and when rates go up because of supply, you suddenly say it's bullish???

can you actually believe common sense? high supply, higher rate. thats basic logic.

The federal reserve, communist criminals charging taxpayers interest on fake money they conjured up out of the thin air since 1913.

@RebelCapitalist Harry Dent has been telling people to buy 10 year treasury for months now.

Hey folks, let me throw this out here. I have a 3.5% mortgage. I’ve been hesitating to pay it off because I was making 5.4% on my money on treasury bills. With rates continuing to drop I’m getting to the break even point after paying taxes.Keep the 160k and hope rates go up? Or just pay it off?

Can someone explain. Is the 10 year going up a good thing ? Does this mean the fed will cut rates drastically?

Why not keep it simple. Inflation is the issue. When you print money and expand credit en masse then you get higher long term interest rates. This is what is happening with a government with no discipline and an aging population

The economy is totally propped up with steroids (money and credit expansion). It has been since post GFC.

Mr Rebel, YOu are reading past data an assuming that the future will play out te same way (or are you?). Sounds like you are CYAing an not telling us anything!.

You’ve been predicting economic disaster for literal yearssssss. But the clickbait always gets me 😫

The government market thinks the orange man is a one trick pony and fear his unpaid tax cut !

George, you’re really out of touch with home buyers. An increase in mortgage rates would be detrimental to first time homebuyers that don’t hold a great deal of investments. If the economy is booming, that will increase demand for homes. Unless home builders significantly increase production, the supply will be virtually unchanged. The increased demand would be likely to boost home prices. When coupled with a mortgage rate that is above what we are seeing now, a large swath of potential homebuyers will be shut out of the market, yet again. Only investors and wealthy to upper middle class families will be able to buy a home. What you call a “healthy” housing market may be wonderful news for people investing in mortgage backed securities, but it may be terrible news for working class families who are trying to get out of rented homes.

STILL THE SAME BS

CUT! Lets do a re-run george.
Come on george take more pride in your usual opening: " hello rebel capitalist hope you're well"
I need to feel the pride of being a rebel capitalist 🤣

Discount THE DEBT by 40% by raising interest rates. Naturally, the DEBT-Holders won't like this unilateral move by the Fed, but F-'em.
Perhaps they would rather suck on a NeoN TYT -- Neo Negative Ten-Year-Treasuries. Borrow $35 Trillion / Blow it ALL up = what?
Up Next, the Hegelian Dialectic: Thesis vs Antithesis = Synthesis. God vs God (IS I vs I AM) in the NAME of Jesus (Matthew 7: 22). And then on 09/23/26, the Great Re-Set when "THEY" unveil the NEON GAUD. The abomination of our desolation.

It won’t be Trumps fault… but he’ll get the blame nonetheless.

Thus we need to send Ukraine and Israel 5X to drive GDP higher.
Uber needs to double its workforce from 7.8M to 16M so ww can show Unemployment at a decent number. We should lie about CPI so Americans continue to spend.
And finally Indeed needs to triple their fake job posting to make it look like there are plenty of jobs

Russia has blocked Utube could be part of your problem .

George please let us know where we can still get your videos. So sorry, because I watched for the last 2 years and you have done a tremendous job coaching! Thank you!

The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.

If we are in a bear steepener and the bond market thinks the economy is going to do great, shouldn't the Fed be raising the overnight rate instead of cutting? Right, the same Fed that told us 'transitory'..

In my mind, higher interest rates aren't a signal that the economy is improving, but a signal that investors need to be compensated for the rate of current and future inflation regardless of the health of the economy. Problem is, that inflation (if measured correctly) is much higher than 5.5% and the government cannot afford to pay even this % interest on it's massive dedt.
So will the fed buy most of the bonds, and will the government try to find a way to shove this garbage down the taxpayers throat? Something has got to give.

Beginning in June 2024, rate reductions will take six to eight months to finish. There could be a crash by March 2025, if there is one. Everyone is calling for a major recession, but the soft landing narrative is gaining hold. I've sold my business for $1 million, and I'm looking for lucrative investment prospects for the next three years.